The French presidency is the most powerful job in the world – General de Gaulle made sure of that when he created the post for himself in 1958. For him a  government minister was simply the cipher to convert his wishes into reality, parliament a rubber stamp, giving a veneer of democracy to an otherwise  autocratic process.

Parliament is still weak, presidents still make laws by decree, avoiding debate, but nevertheless things have changed a bit since the General's day. A president now needs a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. In the outgoing parliament the UMP had a hefty majority of 120 while in the first round of the presidential elections more French people voted right than left. François Hollande's personal victory on May 6th was not the tsunami forecast – the Socialists don't have a shoe-in for June's parliamentary elections.
Having to share power with a right-wing government would be a catastrophe for Hollande, even worse for France. Co-habitation was a concept the General never imagined, but in the past 25 years it has happened 3 times. A president of one persuasion and a government of the other. The result is a US-style stalemate: everything the president puts forward, parliament knee-jerk vetoes.
To prevent France stagnating for 5 years, Jean-Marc Ayrault's provisional government is going to have to persuade voters that life under them will be better. How? 60,000 jobs in education to replace the 80,000 cut by Sarkozy. Lowering retirement age from 62 back to 60 for those few who have worked since the age of 18. Increasing the primary school week to 4 ½ days.  Key elements in the domestic campaign maybe, but  are they are up to the battle facing France? Attacking Brussels'-imposed austerity and pushing growth should be more fertile ground for tub-thumping candidates. Promising growth creates two “feel good factors”: it breeds optimism for the future and it hits the nationalist nerve since Hollande's people claim the idea to stimulate growth was Made in France.  For politicians, it has the added advantage that no one expects results until long after the elections. But it is also somewhat disingenuous: candidates know that while we're all out there willing France to grow, austerity will dominate our lives. How else can France honour its commitments to reduce its deficit and pay interest on its debt? Our cost of living here will rise with higher taxes. More jobs will be lost – unemployment is forecast to rise over 10% – already among the under-25's it's a staggering 22.4%. The press marvels that government ministers have cut their salaries by 30% – but if that is supposed to be an example, what exactly is the message? That the rest of us must expect our salaries to be cut too? Will, for example, primary school teachers be expected to work that extra ½ day at the blackboard on the same wage?
The one certainty about growth is that you cannot summon it by government decree. While “growth” is the new mantra, politicians are coy about how it will be achieved in real terms. Tax-cuts, increased public spending and lowering interest rates are the stock answers, yet technically France has signed away to Brussels its independence on all three. Two other ways to stimulate growth are persuading people to spend more and making industry competitive to boost exports. Unfortunately neither is likely in the near future. The euro group is set for up to two years' recession, and since France depends on those countries to buy its products, boosting exports will not be easy. As a whole, France's share of world export markets has fallen 20%in 5 years. French companies are not competitive on cost – non-wage costs are too high (to pay for the generous welfare system), labour laws too restrictive. Since Hollande has said he is against structural reforms and labour market flexibility the only way for French companies to be competitive is by better technical know-how. On that score French companies do well, but many of the best brains migrate to the multi-nationals, highly prestigious but paying little tax in France.
There is no short-term fix, and the sad truth is that any steps towards real as oppose to hyperbolic growth will almost certainly be overtaken and overwhelmed by the deepening crisis in our single currency, affecting France badly. But if in June the French right wins its way to a cohabitation, our problems will only be prolonged.
©TIM KING
MAY 2012